Published October 5, 2026 in Market Update

One part of Test Market is moving with more strength

By Nashvilles Nik!

Real estate, Test Market

Not every part of Test Market is telling the same story right now. The three months ending July 31, 2026 show a real split between ZIP 37201 and ZIP 37203. Knowing which side your home sits on changes how you think about timing and price.

The national picture first

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.1% year over year through the second quarter of 2026. That is a modest gain. Prices also crept up 0.3% from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2026, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said. The Federal Housing Finance Agency also found that prices rose in 76 of the 100 largest metro areas over those four quarters. So most markets did gain, just not by much.

Nationally, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026, reaching 3.98 million. The national months of supply sat at 4.9 months, the National Association of Realtors said. Rates are adding pressure too. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, Freddie Mac reported. Realtor.com noted that rates crossed 7% in late September 2026 for the first time since January 2025.

ZIP 37203: the stronger side of Test Market

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 85 homes sold in ZIP 37203 in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 3.7% from the same period a year before. The median sale price there reached $632,000, up 14.9% year over year, the Real Estate Data Aggregator reported. That is seven times the national gain. Pending sales in 37203 rose 8.6% year over year, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found. Buyers are still moving.

Homes in 37203 also sold faster. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median days on market at 82 days, which is 8 days shorter than a year ago. Nearly 1 in 5 homes, 18.8%, went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 4.8 points from a year before, the Real Estate Data Aggregator reported. The average sale price came in at 96.8% of list price, up 0.4 points year over year, the Real Estate Data Aggregator said. Those are signs of real buyer interest.

One honest note on 37203: the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 361 homes for sale there, up 32.2% from a year ago. New listings rose 15.5% to 224, the Real Estate Data Aggregator said. More supply means buyers have more choices. That can slow things a little, even in a stronger market.

ZIP 37201: a quieter picture

ZIP 37201 is smaller and slower. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 12 homes sold there in the three months ending July 31, 2026. The median sale price was $576,450, the Real Estate Data Aggregator reported. No year-over-year change figure is available for 37201 from the Real Estate Data Aggregator for this period. Median days on market sat at 159 days, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found. That is nearly twice as long as 37203.

Only 8.3% of homes in 37201 sold above list price, the Real Estate Data Aggregator reported. And only 8.3% went under contract within two weeks of listing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put months of supply at 8.9 months. Homes are sitting longer here, and sellers are getting 95.8% of list price on average, the Real Estate Data Aggregator said.

What this means for you

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 97 homes sold across Test Market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. There were 396 homes for sale and 239 new listings. Those combined numbers smooth over a real difference between the two ZIP codes. Where your home sits shapes everything: how long it may take to sell, and what price makes sense.

Realtor.com reported that active listings nationally are up 6.3% from a year ago, the fastest pace in at least six months. More supply nationwide, plus rates above 7%, means buyers are being careful. Pricing your home right for your specific ZIP code matters more than ever.